Comparison of 22LR Multiple Lots 20K Rounds

Author

Penage Guy – Rimfirecentral

Grauhanen – Accurate Shooter, Snipers Hide and Canadian Gun Nutz

Introduction

During the past two seasons, I shot a lot of .22LR match ammo, the great majority of it at 100 yards in ten-shot groups. I go to the range as often as possible in the mornings when conditions appear calm. Of course, not all of these mornings are equally calm nor do conditions remain equally calm during the course of shooting.

I try to optimize results by avoiding conditions obviously influenced by wind. At 100 yards it’s not easy to account for wind even with wind flags. I use them primarily to let me know when wind may be interfering. It’s much more challenging to account for wind at 100 than at 50.

In the last two years I tested extensively nine different lots of Lapua Midas + and one of Lapua Center X. During this period I used seven different rifles, some more than others.

The results were recorded each time at least ten ten-shot groups were shot in relatively calm conditions. The data for the Midas lots was tabulated and put in
chart form just this week. The Center X data was tabulated last year and may have been posted somewhere on RFC.

Results Overview

Below is an overview of how each lot performed. The averages are with all rifles.

 

Below is a chart showing how each rifle performed with all nine lots of Midas.

 

First Impressions

Both the rifles in general and the ammo in general performed similarly. Relatively small
differences distinguish the ammo and rifles.

More Details

Equipment

To be brief, all rifles used are benchrest style. They have 3″ wide fore-stocks and all but one use
free-recoil stocks. These stocks have butt stocks in line with the barrel. Unlike other rifles (and
shotguns) they have no cast-off where the butt stock is horizontally off-line with the barrel. All
are used free recoil-style, which means once the crosshairs are where they should the rifle is not
touched the rifle except to operate the trigger. All scopes but one are 45X, the other a 10-50.

The front rest is a heavy John Loh rest with a 3″ front bag. I use a mechanical rear rest with the
free recoil stocks.

The Anschutz rifles are used with Starik tuners. The Vudoo V22S and Turbo were shot with and
without a tuner. It should be pointed out that, with .22LR, when distances become greater it
becomes more and more difficult to determine how much, if at all, a barrel tuner makes a
difference.

Below are some of the rifles used in this testing. The front and rear rests are shown.

The Anschutz 1907 (the 54.30 has the same length barrel, about 26″; the 1913 and 2013 have heavier, longer barrels).



The Vudoo V22S (single shot)



The Turbo

 

The One Lot of Center X

Last year I had on hand a case of Center X of one random lot. I bought it blind, without testing
or comparing it to other CX. In May and June of 2025 I shot a quantity of that ammo, some at
my club’s 50 yard range but most of it at 100 yards.

The results are tabulated and they are shown below. Each rifle shot at least 300 rounds (a minimum of 30 ten-shot groups).

 

Deviation from average

This measurement looks at how different an average result is from the overall average.
With the two lots shown above the deviation from the lot average is small for each rifle.
When it is less than 0.050″ it is virtually the same performance. When the deviation

What does the data indicate?

The group averages for each rifle are remarkably similar. They show little deviation or
difference from the overall average.

This is evidence that different good rifles/barrels shoot the same ammo very similarly.

Of course, sceptics might continue to think that the similarity between the averages for each rifle
may be nothing more than a coincidence, a fluke, an unusual quirk of chance resulting in similar
results for each rifles. Is this sample statistically valid?

A statistically valid sample?

Ten-shot groups are much more robust than five-shot groups. They are a more accurate measure because they reduce the element of luck, whether good or bad, that can more easily distort five shot groups. While five shot groups can tell you “this rifle can sometimes shoot small,” ten shot groups tell you much more about “this is what the rifle actually does.”

Comparing thirty or more groups per rifle is a strong sample size. The more groups shot, the “steadier” or more reliable the average becomes. In short, the more groups compared, the more good or bad luck is “smoothed” out. The more mathematically and statistically inclined would say the “standard error” becomes small and the average is reliable.

Could it be just coincidence that all these barrels shot the same ammo similarly?

Look at it this way. If the chances that any two barrels perform similarly with the same lot were less than 100%, the chances that additional barrels — a third, fourth, fifth, or sixth barrel — shooting the same ammo similarly begin to drop.

The fact is that the more barrels that shoot the same ammo the same way the less likely it is a result of coincidence or chance.

To illustrate, see the chart below. It shows how the addition of more barrels changes the chances that they will shoot the same ammo the same way.

 

The more barrels there are that shoot the same ammo similarly, the more and more unlikely it is
that it’s a coincidence.

As unlikely as the possibility of coincidence remains, there is much more data available to shed
further light on the question: do good rifles shoot good ammo similarly?

Fortunately there’s much more data.

Midas +

In 2024 and 2025 I bought quantities of each lot of Midas available in Canada. All together there were a total of ten lots available, all made by Lapua in 2023 and 2024. Canada received five lots of Midas in 2023 and another five the following year. As of this moment, no newer Midas has been available in Canada since.

I bought a number of bricks of each of those ten lots, but only nine in quanties sufficient for this testing. Nine other lots of M+ was mostly used at 100.

Four lots of 2023 Midas were tested.

Two of these were quite similar in target performance. Both had very similar averages and both shot very similarly in each rifle.

 

A Reminder about Deviation from average

This measurement looks at how different an average result is from the overall average.

With the two lots shown above the deviation from the lot average is small for each rifle.

When the deviation from the lot average is less than 0.050″ it is virtually the same performance. When the deviation is up to 0.100″ from the average the results can be described as having similar performance.

Two other 2023-manufactured lots of Midas.

For brevity, less detailed simplified charts are shown hereon in.

Both lots performed very similarly across all rifles. Lot M633 had one rifle, the 54.30SS,
deviating from the lot average by more than 0.100″.

 

Five 2024-made Midas lots

 

 

 

Why are there some anomalies or irregularites in the results? Why are some group averages larger or smaller than might be expected?

Clearly some charts show that with some lots one or two rifles sometimes produced results different enough from the others to warrant attention. Such anomalies can be identified when the deviation from the lot average is plus or minus 0.100″ or more. Why did some rifles do better or worse than the others?

Explanations for anomalies.

• One simple explanation is that when group averages of a rifle were larger than might be expected, some of the data may have been collected when it was a little windier which means that the results were worse. An explanation for why some group averages were smaller than expected may be that conditions were calmer.

• Another explanation might be that ammo variation, random fliers outside the norm, skewed some averages with larger results. Equally, unusually small groups may have contributed to smaller than expected results.

In short, not all boxes of ammo from the same lot are equal, not even in the same rifle. To put it simply, some boxes have more fliers than others, rounds that are more errant in POI. To illustrate, over the chronograph there can be considerable range between boxes in ES and SD values. For example, with the same rifle and lot, one box can have a small ES, another a much larger one (same for SD). More on this problem at a later time.

• Still another explanation might include shooter error.

In the end, with .22LR at 100 yards it can be very difficult to isolate the cause of anomalous results.

Changes in air movement over 100 yards is much harder to appreciate than it is at 50. Ammo variation is often much more dramatic at 100 yards than it is at 50. And no system is flawlessly consistent, certainly not the shooter.

Of course, when overall lot averages are calculated they are based on many groups. The size of the data and the averages they produce serve to help mitigate both unusually large and unusually small group averages.

Two charts to summarize some of the data shown.

Below are the two charts shown at the beginning.

1. How do the nine different lots compare over all rifles that shot them?



2. How does each rifle perform using all lots?



As an observation, consider how small the deviation from the lot average appears. Since the ammo performs similarly it should be reasonably safe to buy Midas blind – without prior testing. Not all lots are equal. Some will be slightly better. With only one lot of Center X in this testing, however, it’s not clear if most lots of this grade of ammo will perform similarly.

Conclusions

This data supports the idea that good rifles/barrels shoot good ammo similarly. There are a few anomalies, but they may be expected when shooting 100 yards outdoors.

And at 100 yards it can be very difficult to produce consistently consistent results. While many sets of ten group averages are under an inch, very few of them include all ten groups under an inch.

This conclusion denies one of the commonly-held ideas with .22LR, namely that each rifle is different and will “like” a certain ammo. A lot that performs well in one rifle may do poorly in another. It’s an idea that is old and taught to .22LR shooters as they become more serious.

Unfortunately, like a lot of old ideas, this one is unsupported by the weight data. While there is anecdotal evidence to support the idea that each rifle is different and will like a certain ammo, there is no body of reliable testing data to support it.

The testing data shown here is sound. The amount of data is considerable. It is robust. It is based on ten-shot groups, hundreds of them. The Midas lots and the one Center X lot comprise over 2000 ten-shot groups (over 20000 rounds). This is a large sample size. The idea that good barrels shoot good ammo similarly is supported by the statistically valid and strong data.

All the 20000 plus rounds in this testing was shot over a chronograph. That information is available and if readers wish to see it it can be shown. Perhaps another thread might be more appropriate for it.

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